December 5, 2014
While the seasonally-adjusted headline Establishment Survey payroll print reported by the BLS moments ago may be indicative of an economy which the Fed will soon have to temper in an attempt to cool down, a closer read of the November payrolls report shows several other things that were not quite as rosy. First, the Household Survey was nowhere close to confirming the Establishment Survey data, suggesting jobs rose only by 4K from 147,283K to 147,287K, and furthermore, the breakdown was skewed fully in favor of Part-Time jobs, which rose by 77K while Full-Time jobs declined by 150K.
And then for those keeping tabs on the composition of the labor force, the same adverse trends indicated over the past 4 years have continued, with the participation rate remaining flat at 62.8%, essentially the lowest print since 1978, driven by a 69K worker increase in people not in the labor force.
The ratio of Civilian employment to the total population, which plunged during the onset of the recession, has still barely budged higher as shown in the chart below:
Finally, anyone hoping that young people, those aged 16-24 are finally entering the workforce in droves, sadly that is not the case once again, with the employed ranks of Americans in that age group down by 169K in the past month. The good news: aged workers, those 55 and over, just rose to a new all time high of 32.814 milllion.
This article was posted: Friday, December 5, 2014 at 2:14 pm