January 5, 2017
The rise and fall of civilisations can be predicted by a simple equation, and our civilisation is in for a fall some time soon.
This is according to Peter Turchin, from the University of Connecticut, who says mathematics can explain human behaviour far more accurately than you might think.
And if his calculations are correct, the world should be prepared for years of political turmoil that will peak at some point in the next century.
A professor of Ecology and Mathematics from the University of Connecticut, Peter Turchin has led the development of a cross-disciplinary subject called ‘cliodynamics’.
‘Cliodynamics is a new ‘transdisciplinary discipline’ that treats history as just another science,’ Professor Turchin says.
He started out using maths to predict human activity from 1500 B.C.E. to 1500 C.E.
Then three years ago, using similar models, he began to forecast the future.
‘My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s,’ he says.
This article was posted: Thursday, January 5, 2017 at 1:28 pm