November 8, 2011
Can he appeal to enough Americans to get on the map?
Yes, undoubtedly. No one expected him to win the governorship in Minnesota, and yet he did. He didn’t win big, but he did beat out some better known candidates. Ventura has exceptional skills in reaching people and with our disgruntled populace, he’s sure to strike a chord with a measurable group of people.
Can he raise enough money to be a credible contender against the hundreds of millions of dollars that’ll be spent by his competitors?
This is where his chances drop precipitously. This next election may well cost the GOP and the Dems a billion dollars each. It’s highly unlikely Ventura could raise even a tenth of that.
He did win in Minnesota with a fraction of the money of his then competitors, but playing in Duluth and Eden Prairie isn’t exactly like playing on Time Square. It’s far from clear that Ventura could carry even a single cranky red state, and he might upset the fragile sensibilities of blue staters.
More to the point, you can get a lot of traction and a lot of votes for a billion dollars, and charm, anger, and personal fortitude can only get you so far against such a concentration of economic resources.
Is there any way that an independent would ever win the White House?
Five years ago, I would have said “No.” Now, I think I have to say, “Yes.”
Barack Obama was not exactly an establishment candidate. He broke all sorts of records and barriers and made it to the White House. He got elected, in part based on much of America’s disgruntlement with George W. Bush, in part because otherwise right-leaning voters were nervous about the McCain/Palin combination, in part because finally voting in someone of color was long overdue, and in part because he was a far more appealing candidate than McCain.
Unfortunately, while Obama was not the establishment candidate, he has been a veryestablishment President. All those disgruntled Americans who voted President Obama into office are still disgruntled — and neither the GOP nor the Democrats are showing any sign of changing the bad business-as-usual climate we’ve seen over the last few decades.
The Tea Party and Occupy movements may just be the tip of the iceberg. I’m starting to think that our two major parties — driven so much by the power and money of lobbyists, banks, and big-money interests — have completely lost touch with the vast majority of voting Americans.
And, while I do think it’s nigh on impossible to battle against the entrenched power of big business, big banking, big capital, and big health, I do think there’s a crack in their defensive battlements — in that they’ve SO angered so many Americans.
Ventura as President. Likely: no. Possible: yes.
Can he build the “machine” necessary for a national campaign?
Ventura’s a very bright dude and did manage a state-wide win. But it’s not clear he’s got the management fortitude to organize what’s essentially a very large enterprise and run it on a national basis.
Fortunately, you can hire such talent and Ventura’s been quite good at recognizing and directing excellent talent.
So, assuming he can pay that talent, I’d rate this one as a definite maybe.
Can he control his mouth and temper so he doesn’t shoot himself in his own foot?
That’s a question for all the candidates, isn’t it? Cain might not be able to keep his foot from his mouth (or possibly his hands to himself, if there’s any truth to the harassment accusations he’s currently fighting). Bachmann certainly can’t. Romney has good message control, but it’s so good he looks more like a robot than a President. And, of course, President Obama is excellent on the campaign trail, but whether he can succeed in an environment not bathed in adulation is the big open question.
So, while it’s not clear Ventura can keep his mouth on mission, he has no less of a chance than any of the other candidates to keep his mouth in check, our President included.
Bottom line: can Ventura win?
Honestly, I think he has very little chance, but I do believe he has a chance — if he decides to run pretty much now and plays for keeps.
Honestly, if Ventura were to run on a simple message — dismantle the TSA — he’s likely to attract a far larger group of voters than anyone might expect. There’s real anger in America about the TSA, and Ventura could be the lightning rod for that anger.
It’ll be a tough slog and a tough fight, but — after all — when you want someone who can handle a tough slog and a tough fight, there isn’t anyone better than a Navy SEAL.
No doubt, it’ll be interesting to watch. And, I’ll tell you what, I’d pay serious money to watch Jesse Ventura debate any or all of the other candidates. Now, that would be something to see!
This article was posted: Tuesday, November 8, 2011 at 7:57 am