Monday, February 15th, 2010
Phil Jones, the University of East Anglia climate scientist at the centre of the Climategate scandal, concedes to the BBC we’ve had warming bursts just like the last one that the IPCC claims was probably man-made:
A – Do you agree that according to the global temperature record used by the IPCC, the rates of global warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were identical?…
So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other.
He agrees that any warming since 1995 is “statistically insignificant”:
B – Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming
Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.
Jones also agrees there has been cooling since January 2002, but insists it’s statistically insignificant because the period is too short:
C – Do you agree that from January 2002 to the present there has been statistically significant global cooling?
No. This period is even shorter than 1995-2009. The trend this time is negative (-0.12C per decade), but this trend is not statistically significant.
And he is prepared to agree at least that even he’s not yet sure that it’s warmer now than it was in the Medieval Warm Period (which the IPCC pooh-poohed):
G – There is a debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was global or not. If it were to be conclusively shown that it was a global phenomenon, would you accept that this would undermine the premise that mean surface atmospheric temperatures during the latter part of the 20th Century were unprecedented?
There is much debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period was global in extent or not. The MWP is most clearly expressed in parts of North America, the North Atlantic and Europe and parts of Asia. For it to be global in extent the MWP would need to be seen clearly in more records from the tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere. There are very few palaeoclimatic records for these latter two regions.
So the recent rate of warming isn’t unprecedented when likened to recent warming periods that are not blamed on man. There has been no statistically significant warming for 15 years, and even cooling since January 2002. The world may, even in Jones’ view, still be cooler now than it was 1000 years ago,
And these facts, agreed to now by one of the scientists most responsible for the man-made warming theory, is behind the greatest mass panic in modern history.
Feel you’ve been had?
Here’s how Jones still justifies his belief that man is warming the world dangerously:
H – If you agree that there were similar periods of warming since 1850 to the current period, and that the MWP is under debate, what factors convince you that recent warming has been largely man-made?
The fact that we can’t explain the warming from the 1950s by solar and volcanic forcing – see my answer to your question D.
It seems the belief is based more on an absence of knowledge than the presence of proof.
This article was posted: Monday, February 15, 2010 at 11:42 am