May 8, 2019
A new poll by VoterLabs is eroding the media narrative that minorities and women hate Donald Trump, though you likely won’t see it on CNN, MSNBC or in The Washington Post.
According to a survey posted to Medium by Walter Kawecki, VoterLabs’ CEO of data and analytics, nearly a third of black Democrat women are neutral or supportive of Donald Trump, which poses a problem for a party that relies heavily on their support.
“Interestingly, 29 percent of respondents had a favorable or neutral opinion of Donald Trump. Of those polled 16 percent responded that they ‘really liked him’ or ‘he’s okay,’ with an additional almost 13 percent undecided, a much different picture than one portrayed in most media,” according to VoterLabs.
Kawecki contends that’s a bad sign for Democrats hoping to take out Trump in 2020.
“Trump’s numbers with black Democratic women show that his populist message still resonates with many,” he said. “Given that (Socialist Sen. Bernie) Sanders also has a heavily populist message, and is currently enjoying strong support in this community, Trump’s numbers shouldn’t be that surprising.
“It’s also important to remember that Hillary Clinton badly underperformed with this group in 2016. Turnout among black Democratic women dropped from around 68 percent in 2008 and 70 percent in 2012, to about 64 percent in 2016.”
The poll of black Democrat women likely to vote in the 2020 primaries was conducted via mobile apps in late April, and included a sample of 689 with a 4 percent margin of error.
The national survey found Sanders enjoyed the highest level of support from black women Democrats, with about 28 percent if the primary was held today, followed by former vice president Joe Biden with 14.5 percent, and “undecided” at nearly 12 percent. Sens. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren polled around 6 percent, followed by former congressman Beto O’Rourke at just under 5 percent.
Sanders led the pack in favorability, as well, with just under 40 percent, though he was also the most divisive, with just over 14 percent who view him unfavorably. Biden came in number two with 27.7 percent who view him favorably versus about 12 percent who have an unfavorable opinion, VoterLabs reports.
“Obviously, experience can factor into voter preference, but it may also be that, as are part of their personal brands, Bernie and Biden are connecting at a more emotional, authentic level,” VoterLabs senior analyst Tom Frederick said.
“I think the take away here is that, to avoid a repeat of 2016, an emotionally resonant populist appeal, delivered in away voters deem authentic, will be key to turning out this crucial Democratic constituency,” Kawecki added.
“The 2020 presidential contest may well hinge on whether black Democratic women turn out or stay home,” he said. “Failure to maximize turnout among this potentially pivotal segment of the Democratic coalition could prove disastrous for the party’s nominee. Trump’s numbers show that Democrats should take this seriously.”
This article was posted: Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 5:48 am