October 3, 2014
The UK is well set for an Ebola outbreak (sarcasm alert) We have TWO isolation units, but one is getting ‘redeveloped’ so it’s not available right now. Called High Security Infectious Diseases Units there are two in the country, each capable of taking two patients. One is at The Royal Free Hospital in Hampstead North London, the other, the one getting a bit of a make-over, is at The Royal Victoria Infirmary in Newcastle, up in the north-east of England.
Four level 4 bio-containment beds between 69,000,000 people
In the US there are 4 units geared up to handle Ebola. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) Clinical Center, Bethesda, Maryland, has 3 beds. Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, has 10 beds. Emory Hospital, Atlanta has 3 beds and St Patricks Hospital, Missoula has 3 beds (source)
19 level four biocontainment beds for 317,000,000 people
I think we just found out why the government(s) are under-playing the situation. They simply do not have the facilities to cope with even a small outbreak. They are, in fact in exactly the same position as the dirt-poor hospitals in West Africa…there are not enough facilities to stop the spread of the disease if it gets out. The quality of care is better, but the availability of containment most likely isn’t.
I am sure ‘regular’ isolation units will be pressed into use but they are not designed to handle level 4 biohazards, they are nowhere near as secure medically speaking, as biocontainment units.
A couple of days ago I explained how exponential spread works. You can read that article here if you like. As a quick recap. Once a disease is at the point where every carrier infects 2 more people,(exponential spread) it will continue until it:
A) runs out of hosts
B) is stopped by medical science or
C) mutates into something less harmful.
What follows will show you how woefully inadequately our governments have prepared for something as lethal as Ebola.
In the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 28% of Americans were infected with the disease…try to remember I am talking numbers here not HOW disease spreads or any medical similarities between diseases. Of those 28%, 12% died, 625,000 Americans lost their lives out of some 29,400,000 infections. The population of the United States at that time was 105,000,000 people.(source)
Fast forward to today. If that flu pandemic had hit the United States in 2014, when the population stands at 317,000,000 people 88,856,000 people would have been infected and 10,651,000 of them would have died.
Now, let’s try this with Ebola. I have picked Liberia just because it is in the news due to the Thomas Duncan case.
Liberia has a population of 4,290,000 people, as of the latest figures there have been 3692 cases of Ebola, this represents less that a tenth of 1% of the population. Of those infections, 1998 people have died that’s a fatality rate of 54%. (source)
If that same infection and death rate were applied to the United States Ebola would infect 2,853,000 people and of those 1,540,000 would die.
Now, if as doctors and scientists fear the basic reproduction rate rises to 2 in Liberia the numbers change very quickly. Using the mean average incubation time of 9 days it would take around 13 weeks for the entire population of Liberia to become infected. (10 doublings starting with 3692 = just under the population of Liberia. This multiplied by 9 days gives us 90 days which divided by 7 gives 12.85 weeks.) Of the 4,290,000 people infected 2,316,000 would lose their lives.
This is just Liberia, not the other affected countries in West Africa.
Translated to an equivalent outbreak in the United States, where the basic reproduction rate is also 2, the numbers are horrifying. Starting with patient zero it would take around 245 days, 35 weeks for every person in the United States to become infected. Of those 17,118,000 people would die. (27.17 doublings x 9 days = 245 days =35 weeks)
Please remember the figures for Liberia are pulled from the CDC website, the percentages are correct. The scenario for the United States was based on exactly the same parameters as for Liberia…a like for like comparison.
The CDC could be spending their time educating people, advising people to stock up, get ready for the possibility of staying in their homes. Self imposed isolation, or if need be state imposed isolation, that may last for an extended time period may become a reality. They’re not doing it though are they? They are sprouting figures and applying them to West Africa, and they can’t even get that right. They are saying that there could be 1.4 deaths in West Africa in a worst case scenario. When actually applying the figures they supplied with some simple mathematics we can see that 1.4 million deaths is a gross understatement.
Even a basic reproduction rate of 1.7, the latest figure for Liberia it will only take around 30 weeks to get to the same point as the above scenario, over 2,000,000 dead.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying that the UK government is any better, if anything they are worse, they don’t even try to do the maths. Most of them went to Eton (a very expensive school that churns out politicians) so it’s unlikely they would be capable of it even if they wanted to. You only have to look at our national finances to see they are no good at sums. They send out press briefings that there will be an emergency COBRA meeting, do you have any clue what that stands for? Let me enlighten you, Cabinet OfficeBriefing Room A. COBRA is not an emergency planning group, it’s an effing office.
Although I am loathed to say it, it’s time that our governments started worrying about the facilities at home rather than worrying about the facilities abroad. Stopping the disease in Africa does not mean we are out of the woods. There are so many unreported cases, people turned away from medica facilities in West Africa that nobody has the slightest idea how many cases of Ebola are actually out there. The porous borders of the region mean that people move around without the controls that are usually exercised in the west. There has to be a travel ban on non-US citizens entering the United States from these areas, the same applies from the UK.
Border control has to be improved in both countries if we have any hope of halting the spread of this terrible disease. The west is going to be the destination for anyone from Ebola hit areas that can afford to make their way from Africa. Many West Africans have contacts in the west who will help them get out, and shelter them when they arrive. As harsh as it seems this has to be stopped, it’s time for governments to put their own citizens first. Repatriation of your own is one thing, risking millions of lives at home because you won’t man up and prevent foreigners entering is quite another.
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This article was posted: Friday, October 3, 2014 at 7:02 am