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Trader Comment: McCain Win Would Be Dollar-Negative; Obama Win, Dollar-Positive

CEP [1]
Tuesday, Nov 4, 2008

Tim O’Sullivan, chief currency trader at Gain Capital, said the U.S. federal election will definitely be a factor in trading of the greenback. He discussed possible moves against the euro in an interview on Monday: “I think what we’re seeing is the narrowing of the polls. There seems to be a trend that there’s a narrowing of the deficit that Senator McCain has between Senator Obama. So, I think what we’re seeing is some selling of dollars, potentially on the idea that McCain would get in. That would be viewed as more of the same, and the last eight years, we’ve clearly seen the dollar de-value. It seems pretty clear that if McCain was to get in, that would be viewed globally as a dollar-negative. I think we’re going to see conditions, as we head up towards the polls, start to get more whipsaw. I think that if Obama was to win I think we would see a re-plumbing of [recent 1.2231] lows [on Oct. 28]. I’m kind of looking over the short term, as the polls start to become more and more evident, so probably tomorrow night eastern standard time, anywhere from 9 to 12 p.m., as those polls start to reflect who the winner’s going to be, we’ll probably see a two-cent move in the direction of whoever’s being called the winner. Dollar lower on McCain, dollar higher on Obama. We would expect that to probably increase over the next week, two weeks, in the same direction, but to the tune of eight-ten figures.” RS