August 19, 2019
White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro downplayed talk of a recession on Sunday, predicting that the global economy “will have a bullish cycle going through 2020 and beyond.”
Appearing on ABC’s “This Week,” Navarro said the longest expansion in U.S. history — 121 consecutive months, since June 2009 — will continue:
So, before I came to the White House I spent a better part of 20 years forecasting the business cycle and stock market trends, and what I can tell you with certainty is that we’re going to have a strong economy through 2020 and beyond with a bull market, and here’s why — things are shaping well.
First of all, the Federal Reserve going into the holidays will be lowering rates significantly. What that will do it will help our investment directly and help our export indirectly through a currency effect.
Secondly, the European Central Bank has signaled strongly they’re about to engage in a very aggressive round of monetary easing that will help not only revive the economy of Europe, but also help build export demand.
I think China is going to have a second round of fiscal stimulus. What that will do for the global economy is help the developing countries that sell them all the commodities for their manufacturing machine.
By early October, if Congress rises above partisan politics, we should have passage of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. This is without hyperbole, the largest trade deal ever in history. It’s also going to give us hundreds of thousands of more jobs, more growth points, and there is a couple of other things I should mention–
Host Martha Raddatz interrupted him, noting that his analysis includes a “lot of ifs.”
This article was posted: Monday, August 19, 2019 at 6:38 am