March 8, 2013
The media’s ecstatic read through of today’s Nonfarm payroll beat can barely end: after all, a print of 236,000 on expectations of 165K, why that has to be great. Well, it is. Until one looks to the number from February 2012, which happens to be 271,000.
And even the Keynesians will agree that February follows January, which in 2013 was a downward revised 119,000. January 2012? 311,000. Which in turn happened just as Europe was fixed again – after all who can forget the LTRO euphoria (and what happened after).
In other words, the first two months of 2012 saw a 582,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. In 2013: 355,000. But something else happened between February 29, 2012 and February 28, 2013… Oh yes, the US government issued some $1,198,397,883,967.30 in debt. Oh, and the Fed monetized about half of this amount, and virtually all of the Treasurys issued to the right of the ZIRP period (i.e., risky debt).
To summarize: $1.2 trillion in debt buys the US…. 61% of the jobs created a year ago. But at least the Dow Jones is at an all time high.
Who else can hardly contain their excitement at what the jobs number a year from today will reveal that yet another $1.2 trillion in debt will do to the US job market…